The Low-Carbon Propulsion Market size is projected to grow at a CAGR of 21.5% during the forecast period, to reach 11,640 thousand units by 2027 from an estimated 2,980 thousand units in 2020.
The prices of oils are highly uncertain and subject to international market conditions influenced by factors outside of the National Energy Modelling System, which is a major driver for the low-carbon propulsion market. The High Oil Price and Low Oil Price cases represent international conditions that could drive prices to extreme, sustained deviations from the reference case price path. For instance, in the High Oil Price case, non-US demand for petroleum and other liquids is higher and non-US supply of liquids is lower, whereas, in the Low Oil Price case, the situation is opposite. With better efficiency and reduction in carbon emissions by CNG, LNG, and electric vehicles, manufacturers are now also focusing on the development and promotion of hydrogen vehicles. Toyota, Hyundai, Honda, Daimler, Nicola, BYD, Tesla, Yutong, and Proterra are the key OEMs in the low-carbon propulsion market.
The COVID-19 outbreak has unleashed an unprecedented socio-economic global crisis, affecting all industry sectors and citizens worldwide. Shutting down of major chunks of fueling stations has added to the crisis. But the revival of the situation by reopening production plants gradually is reducing the negative impact, and thus, the market is expected to grow in the coming years.
Light-duty is expected to hold the largest share in the low-carbon propulsion market during the forecast period.
The light-duty vehicle segment is expected to be the largest market since these are used globally for maximum transportation within cities. Last-mile delivery vans and trucks are the most demanded vehicles due to the emergence of the eCommerce sector. The government organizations are keeping a close track of CO2 emissions from these vehicles. For instance, on December 17, 2018, the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the European Council agreed upon targets aimed to reduce the average CO2 emissions from light-duty vehicles by 15% for 2025 and 31% for 2030.
Alternative fuels are an excellent choice for pickup trucks, vans, and SUVs because they provide the power, performance, and range that fleets require. Currently, Fiat Chrysler is the only light-duty OEM with a factory-built natural gas vehicle available in the US market—RAM 2500 CNG.
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Passenger, in the rail application segment, is estimated to be the largest market during the forecast period
Alternative fuel trains offer the benefit of cost-effective and efficient transportation of passengers as well as freight. Several cities are implementing new rail infrastructure projects to reduce road congestion and provide an affordable means of transportation at an intercity as well as an intra-city level. Increasing urbanization and growing demand for increased connectivity, comfort, reliability, and safety will boost the passenger segment.
Since all modes of public transports are suffering heavy losses due to limited operations during COVID-19, passenger rails and freight are also hard hit by the outbreak. Although transport is ongoing in a controlled way, the scenario for full-scale operations will face a downfall for at least a year. Hence, the market for low-carbon propulsions in passenger rails and freight will be hampered for a while.
Asia Pacific region is expected to have the largest share in the low-carbon propulsion market from 2020 through 2027.
The growth of Asia can be attributed due to the prices for CNG/LNG in transport that is comparatively lesser than gasoline and diesel as a fuel. Also, the adoption of electric and hydrogen driven transports in the region, mainly due to China’s approach towards cleaner technologies, is the major contributor to this market. For instance, CRRC Tangshan Railway Company has introduced a prototype low-floor LRV, FCveloCity, powered by Ballard Power Systems’ hydrogen fuel cell technology, which is being tested on a new 14 km light rail line in China. In addition to this, the fact that China has resumed industrial operations progressively from mid-February—Volkswagen, Nissan, Hyundai, and Honda re-openings production plants—would help drive the market recover quickly in China
South Korea targets the number of hydrogen refilling stations (HRS) to reach 1,200 by 2040. On the other hand, Japan has been consistent in the development of HRS and announced the development of 80 HRS by 2021 with the help of collaborative efforts from the Japanese government and Japan H2 Mobility (JHyM). Moreover, Toyota, Nissan, and Honda have formed joint ventures with major gas and energy firms to build 80 new hydrogen stations in the next four years to add to the existing operational HRSs in Japan.
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Key Market Players
The key players in the low-carbon propulsion market are Tesla (US), BYD (China), Nissan (Japan), Yutong (China), and Proterra (US).
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